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Sustainability Index
An
Earth Manifesto assessment by Dr. Tiffany B. Twain
November 11, 2011
This
Index has been created to evaluate the status of human activities and trends in
order to provide a measure of progress toward a sustainable existence for
humankind.
The
need for an enlightening Sustainability Index is becoming increasingly
clear. In 2005, after a thousand
experts in 95 countries had spent four years compiling the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment, the findings of this evaluation were published. It extensively revealed the details
regarding the extent to which 60% of the vital services provided by healthy
ecosystems are either being significantly degraded or used unsustainably.
Scientists
estimate that ecosystem services contribute about twice as much value every
year in the international economy as the total global gross national product,
so these ecosystems simply must be better protected to ensure a sustainable and
providential future for our heirs!
Evaluation
Parameters of Sustainability
Ecological,
economic, societal and political factors are each valued on a scale of 1 to
5. These numbers mean:
5 -
Sustainable for an indefinite period of time
4 -
Sustainable if important reforms are made
3 -
Unsustainable, but remediable with concerted efforts
2 -
Unsustainable, and requiring transformative changes in incentives and
human behaviors
1
- Definitively and
shortsightedly unsustainable
Initial Rating Latest Rating
July 4, 2011 Nov.
11, 2011
Lower numbers = Worse state
I.
Ecological Factors
1. Global deforestation rate
3 3
2. Depletion rate of oil reserves
2 2
3. Depletion rate of natural gas reserves
3 3
4. Status of clean fresh water supplies
worldwide
2 2
5. Success in recycling, reusing, and reducing
wasteful consumption 2 2
6. Proportion of power generated from renewable
sources 2 2
7. Depletion rate of agricultural phosphate
minerals
2 2
8. Carbon-dioxide concentration in the
atmosphere (Footnote 1)
4 4
9. Wetlands protection trend
3 3
10. Fisheries health
2 2
11. Adherence to the Clean Air and Clean Water
Act
3 3
12. Ecological footprint impact (see Footnote 2) 3 3
13. Rate of species extinctions
3 3
14. Living Planet Index status evaluation 3 3
15. Progress toward a new holistic and
ecologically sane worldview
2 2
II.
Economic Factors
16. Level
of U.S. deficit spending 1 1
17. Total government debt in nations
worldwide 1 1
18. Retirement security for the majority 2 2
19. Fairness of the structure of graduated
income tax rates
1 1
20. Commitments to infrastructure maintenance
and investment 2 2
21. Financial volatility gauged by the Dow Jones
Industrial Average 2 1
22. Unemployment rate in the U.S.
2 2
23. Inflation rate and interest rates 4 4
24. Cost of weather-related natural
disasters 3 2
III.
Societal Factors
25. Inequality status 1 1
26. Global population growth rate
2 2
27. Teenage pregnancy rate 3 3
28. Rates of child mortality and maternal death
rate in pregnancy 3 3
29. Poverty gauge in aggregate 2 2
30. Improving overall average quality of
life 2 2
31. Life span of people worldwide 4 4
32. Legal open-mindedness in personal
right-to-die decisions
3 3
33. Educational awareness of proper long-term
priorities
2 2
IV.
Political Factors
34. International level of violent conflicts
2 2
35. Global spending on armaments and wars 1 1
36. Ascendancy of cooperation over competitive
ruthlessness 2 2
37. Balance between conservatism and
liberalism 1 1
38. Political corruption and repression
gauge 3 3
39. Anti-environmentalism fervor gauge 2 2
40. Fairness of the criminal justice system in the U.S. 2 2
41. Corporate and government transparency and
accountability 2 2
42. Commitment to curbing the externalization of
costs onto society 2 2
43. Medical marijuana prohibition status 3 3
44. Status of women’s rights
2 2
45. Progress toward a Bill of Rights for Future
Generations 1 1
Totals 102 100
SUSTAINABILITY
STATUS EVALUATION:
Under
100 -
Poor prospects, and definitely unsustainable, with epic future disruptions
likely.
100 -
140 -
Risky prospects, with transformative changes needed to be sustainable.
140 -
180 -
Encouraging progress toward sustainable existence.
180 -
225 -
Salubrious progress toward sustainable existence.
HISTORICAL RECORD OF CHANGES IN ASSESSMENTS:
Factor
24. Heat wave in late July 2011 across
the U.S. sets record hot temperatures in hundreds of locations.
Factor
21. Stock markets worldwide experience
extreme volatility in August 2011 on fears of contractions in economic growth
and downgrades in the trustworthiness of the United States government in
dealing with its record levels of debt due to refusals by politicians to
honestly deal with vitally important financial and social issues.
Footnote
1. Bill McKibben, the creator of an
international effort (350.org) to
limit climate-disrupting greenhouse gas emissions, has posited that a carbon
dioxide concentration in the atmosphere of 350 ppm is a safe level that will
not cause insidious disruptions to normal global weather patterns. The concentration of carbon dioxide is
currently 393 ppm. Greenhouse gas
emissions associated with logging and the burning of fossil fuels and animal
husbandry have caused this concentration to increase every year for many
decades, as reflected in frequent measurements done high atop the Mauna Loa
volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii in the remote reaches of the Pacific
Ocean.
The
Sustainability Index will assume the following:
Carbon
dioxide below 350 ppm =
Sustainable for an indefinite period of time
Carbon
dioxide at 350 to 400 ppm = Sustainable if immediate remediate reforms are made
Carbon
dioxide at 400 to 450 ppm = Unsustainable, but remediable with concerted
efforts
Carbon
dioxide at 450 to 500 ppm = Unsustainable, and requiring radical changes
Carbon dioxide above 500 ppm = Definitively unsustainable and highly
disruptive
Footnote
2. The Average Carbon Footprint of all
people on Earth indicates that we would need 1.5 planet Earths to sustain
current levels of production and consumption.
There is, of course, only 1 planet Earth to provide for us. If everyone consumed at the profligate per
capita rate as people in the United States, more than 5 planet Earths would be
needed.
The
Sustainability Index will assume the following:
Global
need for 1 planet Earth =
Sustainable for an indefinite period of time
Global
need for 1 - 1.5 planet Earths =
Sustainable if far-reaching reforms are made
Global
need for 1.5 - 2 planet Earths =
Unsustainable, but remediable with concerted efforts
Global
need for 2 - 3 planet Earths =
Unsustainable, and requiring radical changes
Global need for 3+ planet Earths = Definitively unsustainable and
inevitably disruptive
Notes
from Dr. Tiffany B. Twain, creator of this Index:
Ecosystems
services are provided principally by forests, wetlands, oceans, wild areas,
mineral deposits, pollinators, and natural systems like the hydrologic
cycle. The human race simply must begin
to give greater respect to these factors, because they are fundamental
underpinnings of our prosperity and flourishing and survival. We must find ways to stop mindlessly messing
with Mother Nature and harming her ability to continue providing these vital
ecosystem services!
I strongly recommend the great film Home which was produced by the eminent ecologist and
aerial photographer Yann Arthus-Bertrand. It has
beautiful cinematography and a profoundly important message, and it provides a
great appreciation for the nature and scope of ecological
challenges we collectively face. The
film can be found
online by Googling Home film on
YouTube. The
93-minute-long film makes ecological truths come alive by providing cogent and compelling
insights into the nature of reality and of our existence on Earth.
Also,
DO AS I DID: Google The Rapture Index, and print it
out. Review the 45 components that are
listed in this Index, and think about the implications of the doomsday
fundamentalist dogma which is assumed by the person who cooked up this
Index. This must be a person who is
quite confused about the causative and effectual correlations of Cause and
Effect in the real world. This is a
TRUE BELIEVER! Contemplate the
laughably superstitious suppositions that went into the choice of categories in
The Rapture Index, and in the assessments it makes.
The
Sustainability Index, in distinct contrast to the Rapture Index, is based on
knowledge, intuition, intelligence, common sense, and extrapolated trends. It evaluates 45 factors which have a direct
bearing on our ability to live sustainably for the indefinite future. This is an assessment which is being made
with empathetic awareness and visions of an achievable better future. Progress in creating a more sustainable
future society would ensure that greater good goals are met and people
worldwide would be more mutually secure.
Our
economic systems are completely inadequate as currently constituted. They simply must begin to take into account
the mounting costs and escalating harmful impacts of our collective
activities. Common sense says the
greater good will be found in improving our Sustainability Index rating from
“Risky prospects” to “Encouraging progress” within the next 20 years.
It
is staggering to realize that there are now 7 billion people alive on Earth, up
from 2 billion in 1930 and 3 billion in 1960.
An estimated 15 billion more people will be born in the next 100 years
alone.
Using
cooperative problem-solving and empathetic understanding, we could formulate
mutual win/win solutions to intergenerational conflicts that so bedevil our
societies and the prospects of our descendents. We could thus ensure that we can all continue to live on Earth
without destroying the vital balance of Nature and the health of the ecosystems
upon which we depend.
A
crucial first step would be to make a Mandatory Agreement amongst all
interested parties and all nations to include a small surcharge in the price of
every product and service that would be used to finance higher-priority
ecologically sane initiatives. Such an
Agreement would help create a more propitious future for the human race, and
for all life on earth. This Agreement
would be a first step toward requiring that privatized profits are not
artificially increased by the expedient and dishonest gambit of socializing
costs.
See One Dozen Big Initiatives to Positively
Transform Our Societies in
Part Four of the Earth Manifesto for a good plan to rectify the undesirable
aspects of the insidious wrong-headedness of allowing costs to be externalized
onto the future. This plan for a more
sound economy is the fourth initiative identified in One Dozen Big Initiatives to Positively Transform Our Societies.
When
I reflect on the absurd thinking that has gone into The Rapture Index, it reminds
me of Mark Twain’s entertaining cynicism contained in Letters from the Earth.
Check out Rapture
Mania: Bizarre Beliefs and Epic Epiphanies in Part One of
the Earth Manifesto for clearer perspective.
What,
after all, are the chances that an angry God is soon going to destroy the Earth
in a way prophesized by an ancient book?
Are
prophesies credible, in any way, that are part of a manipulative sublapsarian
Garden of Eden story which contains a shrewd hook holding that believers must
absolutely believe this story in order to be saved? Could it be possible that millions of people really believe the
Word of a book written almost 2,000 years ago that alleges there is a desirable
afterlife in Heaven for believers and a grotesque burning in Hell forevermore for
those who do not believe?
It
is all but certain that the world is not going to end the way the Bible
says. An enormous amount has been
learned about the geological nature of the Earth in the last 50 years alone,
including the earth-shaking understanding of Plate Tectonics and the true
causes of volcanic activity and earthquakes.
We have also become increasingly aware of the real challenges that
humanity is facing and the likely ecological adversities we will suffer in
coming decades. These understandings
give us a much better comprehension of the probable fate of the Earth and its
denizens.
It
is far more likely that there will be no “end of the world”, but merely severe
damage to life on Earth. The cause of
this damage will not be caused by God, but by us truly, Homo sapiens.
“Homo sapiens” means “wise humankind”, so
let’s wise up to improve the prospects of our thriving and survival.
I
challenge all readers to print out the Home Page of the Earth Manifesto, and to
review its contents. Part Four contains
a wide range of specific ideas on how we could reform our economic and
political systems to move in a direction that is much more salubrious and
sustainable.
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Feedback?
Contact Dr. Tiffany B. Twain at SaveTruffulaTrees@hotmail.com
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